Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
Strong West winds have built new wind slab on East aspects. Watch for glide slabs and cracks that formed on North-East, East and South-East aspects below 2500m. Please note that we currently have limited observations, and there is some uncertainty around some parts of this forecast.
Forecast issued at: 28 December 2023 19:00
Forecast valid until: 29 December 2023 19:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slab
With very strong W winds over the last 24 hours, expect areas of windslab that could be reactive, especially in sheltered areas such as below rock outcrops or in steep gullies. Slabs may be further down the slope, and ridgetop areas are likely to be scoured even on the sheltered aspects. Areas that look fat or sound hollow should be treated with caution. They could be 50 - 100cm thick.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
A thin layer of facets over or under a melt-freeze or sun crust has been found which is now around 1.5m below the surface. We haven't observed any avalanches on this layer yet, and it needs further investigation.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Low |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Today very strong W winds moved a lot of snow, leaving some scoured areas with new wind slabs likely in sheltered places.120cm of new fell in a stormy period ending Dec 26th with mostly W winds. The snowpack observed before this storm on S, SE, N and NE aspects above 3000m indicated a "right side up" snowpack with density increasing with depth. Some facets were found close to the ground on N aspects. A very thin layer of facets was found overlying a crust which is now about 1.5m below the surface. Snow tests have not show any concerning results yet, but tests have been limited.
- https://snowpilot.org/node/57023
- https://snowpilot.org/node/57020 Glide slab avalanches on steep grassy slopes were observed at 2400m on Chrdili S - SE aspects, 27th December.
Weather
A period of high pressure takes hold over the next few days with light winds, sunny days and temperatures warming after tomorrow. Tomorrow (29th) will be relatively cool with a high of -6 and light NW winds.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.