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People must have been snow-dancing hard at the Gudauri rave spots lately! This new fall of cold snow adds weight to a snowpack that is unstable in some places. Some W winds moved snow overnight Friday. Storm Slabs and Loose Dry avalanches will be the main problems, but Deep Slabs and Wind Slabs are possible too. Check the deeper snow layers and avoid an unpleasant surprise.
Size 2 natural storm slab, Bidara, E, 2900m
Size 1 + 2 natural slabs (possibly wind slabs) seen on Bidara NE, 2700m,
Size 1 - 1.5 wet loose avalanches on steep W faces near Zemo Mleta
Two size 2 wind slab avalanches (one a large 2 - possibly 3) at S face of Constitution (Dragon) peak (peak to the NE of Kudebi). SW aspect, 3100 metres.
A large possibly wind-triggered avalanche was spotted on the E side of Sadzele on Saturday morning, but details are scarce. It may have started as a wind slab, then stepped down to the weak base layer. As is often the case, bad weather and snowfall moved in, and the evidence is being hidden by a new layer.
Recent storms have brought over 200 cm of snowfall since January 1st that has settled to 100-150 cm depending on the elevation. W, N and E winds have moved the snow around, creating wind slabs in different areas. Early season snow has formed a sugary, weak base at ground, around 15 - 30cm thick. This layer is unpredictable since the early snow cover was inconsistent - but it's more likely to cause problems in the high alpine zone on W, N and E slopes. Shooting cracks, whumpfing and rider-triggered avalanches have been reported, caused by this weak base layer.
Snowfall continues through Sunday 18th and gradually eases on Monday 19th. Totals were only expected to reach 20cm - but localised weather patterns often mean that predictions can be wrong and we may receive a much higher total. Winds are forecast to be light to moderate E and SE. Freezing level around 1000m in the day, dropping to 500 at night and lower on Monday night - it will be very cold at higher elevations!
Cold temperatures - especially at upper elevations. Low visibility. Rocks are still lurking under the new snow layers - ride with caution!