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The current storm has turned out to be more productive than expected, delivering around 50 cm of new snow at resort level (2,000 m), with higher amounts at upper elevations. The storm also lasted longer than forecast and only ended on the evening of January 13, prolonging the unstable storm-slab problem by another day.
A deep persistent weak layer remains at the base of the snowpack, meaning that all recent snow - including the layer from the January 9-10 storm - now rests on an unstable foundation on W, N and E slopes above 2,000 m
If an avalanche is triggered, it could be large, taking away the whole snowpack. A small loose dry, wind or storm slab avalanche could trigger a larger avalanche involving deeper layers.
Two size 2 slab avalanches at S face if Constitution (Dragon) peak (peak between Kudebi and Sadzele)
Skier-triggered persistent slab near Kobi pass, N, 3000m. The avalanche broke near the ridge where there was a build-up of wind-blown snow, and failed on the weak base layer.
A skier triggered a couple of 'persistent slab' avalanches on the W face of Sadzele, at around 3000m - luckily they did not spread across the whole slope.
Size 2 natural storm slab, Bidara, E, 2900m
Size 1 + 2 natural slabs (possibly wind slabs) seen on Bidara NE, 2700m,
Size 1 - 1.5 wet loose avalanches on steep W faces near Zemo Mleta
Recent storms have brought over 200 cm of snowfall since January 1st that has settled down to 100-150 cm depending on the elevation.
However, early season snow formed a sugary, weak base at ground, around 15 - 30cm thick that is still there.
This layer is unpredictable since the early snow cover was inconsistent - but it's more likely to cause problems in the high alpine zone on W, N and E slopes.
Shooting cracks, whumpfing and rider-triggered avalanches have been reported over the last week - signs of an unstable snowpack - and the base layer is the cause.
Storm is over and sky will begin to clear in the upcoming days: overcast on wednesday and thursday, partly cloudy on friday. Air temp at the resort level will drop down to -10 Celcius during daytime by Friday. Moderate to light N winds.
Low visibility with clouds as low as 2500 m. and flat light on thursday.