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Last week’s warm period has come to an end!
These conditions contributed to the stabilization of the snowpack, as the freezing level repeatedly rose to high elevations (up to 2,700 m on several days) and now, over the next couple of days, the weather will be characterized by stable sub-freezing temperatures throughout the day, near-constant cloud cover, and light southerly to southwesterly winds. This should further promote bonding within the existing snowpack layers.
The overall avalanche danger is now rated at Level 2 (Moderate) out of 5.
While natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches remain possible. These could still be large and destructive if triggered in isolated areas. Small avalanches are likely in specific terrain features.
Take advantage of any breaks in the clouds to explore the area, plan your route carefully, and remember: enough to ride — enough to slide!
MULTIPLE size 2 natural avalanches on Miketi and Sheli SE slopes starting at 2600-2400 m.
Size 2 rider-triggered avalanche in left bowl of Lower Kobi valley at 2400 m.
Caught 3 riders - all 3 were extracted succesfully.
MULTIPLE Size 2 wet loose slides at Kudebi 2 S and SW slope starting at 2500-2800 m.
MULTIPLE Size 2 and 3 avalanches on W wall of Kobi lower valley strting at 2700-2950 m.
Two size 3 wet loose avalanche on Kudebi 2 E face towards Khada valley
Recent warm period has produced a dense, moist and settled snowpack in the alpine and sub-alpine zones. Last snowfall brought mostly damp snow across most of the area. However, there are some areas of drier snow on shaded aspects above about 2700 m.
A surface hoar / surface facets layer which was buried on 05/02 can be found around 80 cm deep, which has produced ECTP results in tests, and is likely involved in step-downs of avalanches observed over the last week or two.
During the night of Feb 18 in the alpine and high alpine thick crusts formed on top of the snowpack on E, S and W aspects - these were later covered with fresh Feb 18-19 snow. Sharp temperature drop on Feb 19-20 likely lead to a steep temperature gradient in the upper layers of the snowpack. In these conditions faceted snow might have appeared above and below such crusts - this is a subject for further investigation (stay tuned for the updates).
Various hard wind-pressed layers are in the pack in many locations. The depth of snow varies through the forecast area, from less than 100cm in the north of the region (e.g. Sioni valley) to more than 150cm in the west (Lomisa area). A sugary, weak 10-20 cm thick base layer at ground still remains a concern in the high alpine and alpine zones on W, N, and E slopes - but the areas this can be found are 'patchy' (i.e. not everywhere).
Low, thick cloud cover is expected in the coming days, with occasional breaks of sunshine in the afternoon.
Daytime air temperatures will be around −3 °C, dropping to approximately −7 °C overnight. The freezing level will fluctuate between 1,000 m and 1,700 m.
Light S winds during the day, shifting to light N winds at night.
Light precipitation is possible during the overnight and morning hours
Low clouds in the afternoon during next few days might pose a significant difficulty for navigation.