პროგნოზების არქივი

This is the final forecast of the season - and it's a general warning about spring conditions. As the snow warms up, loose wet and wet slab avalanches can happen on all elevations and aspects. Old weak layers can also be triggered by this warming. Storms will still roll through the area bringing snow, rain and wind. These will increase the danger for a time. Check the recent weather data before you go into the mountains so you know what to look out for. Thanks for reading our forecasts this winter and big love to all our volunteers, members and supporters. See you next winter!

Loose wet slides are the main danger as the temperatures warm over the weekend. As some snow builds up at higher elevations with S winds, small wind slabs could form. Any observations about snowpack and avalanches are really appreciated - post on our Facebook group or send us a message. Our next forecast will be the last of the season!

Sunny days are here, and it's ski touring season! The main concerns over the next days are loose wet slides caused by intense sun and a high freezing level, with the possibility of areas of unstable snow that was built up by N winds overnight on Sunday. Have fun out there but take care. Any observations about snowpack and avalanches are really appreciated - post on our Facebook group or send us a message.

The storm didn't bring quite as much snow as forecast - but still a significant amount. An estimated 80 - 100 cm has fallen at high elevations since Thursday April 9th, first with SW winds, then with N winds overnight Sunday. Conditions are still dangerous, with human triggered avalanches likely. The storm is moving away but the avalanche danger will linger for the next couple of days.

The 2026 season is going out with a bang! Around 60 cm has been measured over the last 48 hours, with up to 150 cm more to come over the next 3 days, according to some models. Well, by anyone's book, this means that we're in high danger for a while. It's just too much snow over a short time, and with strong SW, S and SE winds up high, natural avalanches are LIKELY and human-triggered avalanches are VERY LIKELY. Avalanches that start in the high alpine zone could travel all the way down to valley floors in the sub-alpine zone. So please play safe - you've made it this far - make sure you can enjoy summer too! Stay in safe, low-angle terrain and well away from avalanche paths until at least Tuesday next week. The weather won't be any good for backcountry missions anyway :)

Snowy weather is expected for the next few days, with strong SW, S and SE winds. Loose wet, storm slab and wind slab avalanches are the main dangers, and the danger will increase as the new snow stacks up.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be the last good days in the backcountry before a stormy period starts. The snow quality has been good, with a thin wind-pressed layer of fresh snow - fun times! Loose wet slides are the biggest worry, in sunny areas and low elevations, but there is also a danger of wind slabs in some places. Please report any snow and avalanche observations on our facebook group, or send us a message. A big thanks to our volunteers, supporters and members who are making this forecast possible.

A little new snow and some strong winds up high means wind slabs are possible. Sun and warm temperatures means loose wet slides are likely. Plan routes to avoid dangerous areas and check for signs of unstable snow. Please report any snow and avalanche observations on our facebook group, or send us a message. A big thanks to our volunteers, supporters and members who are making this forecast possible.

Upcoming couple of days are going to remain very warm so wet loose avalanches on steep slopes below 2500 m. are likely throughout the day. Deep persistent weak layer is still there in the high alpine, where on shady aspects winter-like dry snow remains in some areas. Explore the area and keep an eye out for any source of observations on snow qualities and snowpack stability!

Couple of sunny days with cold nights and warm day hours. Weather will stay stable for a while before it will get warmer again. Natural and rider-triggered wet avalanches are likely in the afternoon at lower elevations. Wind slabs are present in some isolated areas higher up due to recent moderate NW winds. Keep an eye out for fresh avalanches - some observations are highly apprectiated!

Temperatures are expected to drop slightly during Monday and Tuesday as some fresh snow reaches the resort area. Saturday’s moderate winds have likely formed wind slabs on south-facing slopes in the high alpine, while wet loose avalanches remain likely at lower elevations, as daytime temperatures are still around 0 °C. Keep an eye on how much new snow accumulates over the coming days. Any observations regarding this, as well as the effects of recent winds, are very welcome!

Spring conditions with rain below 2,500 m, and the potential for wind slab formation on south-facing slopes at higher elevations. Thick cloud cover is expected to persist over the coming days, with air temperatures remaining above 0 °C even overnight. This will keep wet avalanches likely on steep slopes in the alpine and subalpine zones. At the same time, moderate winds beginning on March 27 may form wind slabs on south-facing slopes in the high alpine. Persistent fog and flat light will keep navigation difficult.

What an amazing day we had on March 24th! But clouds are now rolling back in again bringing in some light precipitation and warm air temps. Graupel layer now rests 25 cm deep in the snowpack just below the recent storm's snow and is able to produce slab avalanches higher up. Weak facetted base layer deep in the snowpack is still there on shaded aspects - both of these can produce quite large avalanches as it was proven by March 24th events (see avalanches section). Wet avalanches on steeper aspects are also a reality now because air temperatures are now staying at around 0C throughout the day. Bad visibility in the upcoming days makes navigatiion difficult so plan ahead!

The storm cycle is ongoing, with around 20–25 cm of new snow expected on March 23. Keep in mind that the previous March 21-22 snowfall deposited a considerable amount of graupel across a range of elevations and aspects. This may act as a weak layer beneath the March 23 snow and could lead to storm slab release in the alpine and high alpine. Wet loose avalanches are likely - especially when skies will clear on March 24 and afternoon air temperatures at resort level are expected to rise to around 4 °C. Stay tuned as the forecast might get an update depending on the amount of fresh March 23rd snow and send us your observations!

A few cm of snow has fallen on Friday afternoon with light S and E winds The March 15 and 16 snowfall was moved by strong N and NW winds - this layer is now much more stable, but pockets of wind slab might remain. Lower elevations and sunny faces could see more loose wet activity as the freezing level remains high. Deep slab avalanches also remain possible in isolated areas, on shaded aspects at high elevations - they haven't been seen for a while but the problem layer can still be found at ground. Level 2 means human-triggered slides are still possible, so choose your lines carefully. We encourage you to share your observations regarding current snow and avalanche conditions - post in our Facebook group or just send us a message!

The new snow of March 15 and 16 was moved by strong N and NW winds - this layer is now much more stable, but pockets of wind slab still remain. Lower elevations and sunny faces could see more loose wet activity, as the freezing level rises on Thursday. Deep slab avalanches also remain possible in isolated areas, on shaded aspects at high elevations. Level 2 means human-triggered slides are still possible, so choose your lines carefully. We encourage you to share your observations regarding current snow and avalanche conditions - post in our Facebook group or just send us a message!

30 - 40 cm of new snow has fallen above 2000m. Winds have moved this snow so it will be deeper and more reactive in some areas at higher elevations. Strong NW at high elevations has created wind slabs. Lower elevations and sunny faces can expect loose wet activity. Deep slab avalanches also remain possible in isolated areas, on shaded aspects at high elevations. Level 3 means human-triggered slides are likely! We encourage you to share your observations regarding current snow and avalanche conditions - post in our Facebook group or just send us a message!

A new storm is bringing a new layer of snow to the region - it may not be a huge dump, but as the snow stacks up, a storm snow problem will develop. Winds will re-distribute the snow and make if more reactive in some areas. Lower elevations might see loose wet activity. Deep slab avalanches also remain possible in isolated areas, on shaded aspects at high elevations. Level 3 means human-triggered slides are likely! Stay tuned for updates. We encourage you to share any observations regarding current snow and avalanche conditions - post in our Facebook group or just send us a message!

Last 2 days before the storm is forecasted to arrive to the area: Clouds rolling in, temps slightly below zero and light to moderate winds. As air temperatures rise, loose wet avalanches are likely on Friday. Deep slab avalanches remain possible in isolated areas on shaded aspects. Stay tuned for updates. We also encourage you to share any observations regarding current snow and avalanche conditions!

We are moving closer to the end of current stable weather period: air temperatures are still below freezing with mostly clear sunny days and cloudy nights. This trend will shift in a couple of days - temperatures will rise to around 0C before new storm is forecasted to arrive, so use remaining days wisely! However stay aware of the deep weak layer that is still there in isolated spots on shaded aspects and loose wet avalanches that might be triggered in the afternoon lower down if it will get warmer than it was forecasted.

A long period of stable fine weather is rolling in: sunny warm days with some clouds, cold clear nights and some light wind. Some S and SW winds were present on March 06th higher up, so a few wind slabs have likely formed on the leeward NE and E slopes in the Alpine and High alpine. Deep weak layer is still there in isolated spots and loose wet are likely down in the valley later in the day - especilly in case if a "greenhouse effect" will be created by clouds. Seems like a good time to explore the area - so play safe and stay tuned for the updates!

The new snow of February 26 + 27th has mostly stabilised, and we have a settled spell of weather coming up with a few cms of snow possible on Wednesday and Friday. There may still be some areas of wind slab that could be triggered in the high alpine zone, loose wet is possible on steep sunny slopes lower down, and keep in mind the deep instability at the base of the snowpack in some areas.

The new snow of February 26 + 27th is settling and stabilising, with some lingering wind effects from E, S then N winds around the region. Danger though the forecast period will gradually decrease, but be aware of 'loaded' areas in the high alpine - and keep in mind the deep instability at the base of the snowpack in some areas.

Well that was a welcome little top-up: 80 cm over the last 2 days, and still more to come! Unfortunately, this increases the danger level, as this new snow has not had time to stabilise, and avalanches will be easy to trigger and could be large. The main avalanche problem is new snow instability, but don't forget about the possibility of deeper weaknesses. Approach all steep slopes with caution and just give the new snow time to settle before getting after it - Saturday is not the day to go big! Take it easy for a day or two and give the snowpack time to adjust. The skiing will be better when the snow settles too :)

Just when you thought it was almost spring... a new storm rolls into the caucasus area. It has potential to bring a significant amount of snow to Gudauri, with light to moderate S and SE winds. The main avalanche problem will be new snow instability, but don't forget about the possibility of deeper weaknesses. Stay tuned for more updates - if the weather changes, we'll change the avalanche forecast.

Last week’s warm period has come to an end! These conditions contributed to the stabilization of the snowpack, as the freezing level repeatedly rose to high elevations (up to 2,700 m on several days) and now, over the next couple of days, the weather will be characterized by stable sub-freezing temperatures throughout the day, near-constant cloud cover, and light southerly to southwesterly winds. This should further promote bonding within the existing snowpack layers. The overall avalanche danger is now rated at Level 2 (Moderate) out of 5. While natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches remain possible. These could still be large and destructive if triggered in isolated areas. Small avalanches are likely in specific terrain features. Take advantage of any breaks in the clouds to explore the area, plan your route carefully, and remember: enough to ride — enough to slide!

Current warm period is still ongoing with snowpack getting quite damp all the way up to around 2700 m. before the last snowfall. This storm brought about 20-30 cm of damp snow at higher elevations while rain was ongoing below 2000 m. During the upcoming couple of days some W winds are about to set in as it is casual in the area after the storms. In these conditions and with fresh snow on top wet loose avalanches are certain to happen later in the day on solar aspects (so plan your riding earlier in the day) and wind slabs are about to form at higher elevations on E facing slopes.

A new snowfall is on the way, with continuing high freezing levels - although not as high as the previous 3 days. Danger levels remain the same, but with different problems. 'Forecast fatigue' is real, but don't get complacent, recent avalanche activity shows that dangerous conditions still exist around the area. Thanks for reading the forecast - please spread the word, and support our work by becoming a member (you get some nice benefits too) - check the 'join us' page in the 'about' section.

Up to 30cm new snow at higher elevations and strong S and SW winds has created a windslab danger. Sunny and very warm weather is coming up, which will make wet loose snow slides a problem too. The deep slab problem can still be found in some places, and the warming could destabilise this layer. Take care out there for the next few days, as these overlapping problems could be quite a challenge to manage. Keep your eyes peeled for signs of avalanche activity and changes in the snow, and keep it conservative until this midwinter heatwave finishes. Thanks for reading the forecast - please spread the word, and support our work by becoming a member (you get some nice benefits too) - check the 'join us' page in the 'about' section.

Although in some places the weak base layer seems to be less of a problem recently, with up to 40cm of snow, strong S winds, and warm temperatures predicted for the next storm cycle, the elevated danger pattern that we've seen all season so far continues! And we need to continue to take care to avoid areas where avalanches could happen. Thanks for reading the forecast - please spread the word, and support our work by becoming a member (you get some nice benefits too) - check the 'join us' page in the 'about' section.

Lots of W wind in the Alpine and High alpine on Feb 09 and more in the upcoming days - wind slabs are bound to be yet again spread on E slopes at these elevations. Such strong winds over a prolonged period of time are likely to create especially big slabs that can later produce bigger full profile avalanches as they might trigger the reported surface hoar that is now buried underneath or even a deep persistent weak layer that still lingers in the snowpack since the beginning of the season.

Recent heavy (70 cm at 2000 m.) snowfall with subsequent strong N/NE and, later - SW winds led to a lot of natural and rider-triggered avalanche activity throughout the area on all elevations (see avalanche section for details). Layers of wind-drifted snow cross-loaded a lot of slopes and features, making route-finding in the upcoming weather that will be characterized by poor visibility especially difficult. Moreover, as big areas covered with surface hoar were reported and this new snow now can reside in top of auch weak layer. Amidst the spreading rumors about an avalanche fatality in the area we encourage you to play safe, carefully evaluate the conditions before venturing in the backcountry and spread the word about the Forecast so that more people will be aware of current conditions!

The recent storm is over now, having deposited over 70 cm of fresh snow at the resort level and even more at higher elevations during last 4 days. On the night of February 1-2, strong W and SW winds carried some of this snow onto the leeward E and NE slopes, forming wind-blown layers that are now covered by fresh snow that fell on February 3-4. On Feb 4 strong N and NW winds were present at higher elevations in the afternoon as well - combination of these events created complex wind loading pattern at higher elevations. Recent high natural avalanche activity observed on Feb 4th confirms high potential for rider-triggered avalanches as well. Rain was ongoing below altitudes of approximately 1,500-1,800 meters, significantly saturating the snowpack in the subalpine zone. Top of the snowpack than refroze the night after. Upcoming long awaited sunny days look welcoming for backcountry exploration but use them wisely and stay safe - current conditions did not become less tricky!

A snowy few days are coming up, with some strong winds at high levels. The new snow will be unstable for a while especially as the depth increases and winds move it around. In addition, don't forget the deep slab problem that exists in some areas. Thanks for reading our forecasts - if you like our work, please visit the 'join us' page to support.

The warm period continues before a new weather system moves in on Sunday. Loose wet slides and deep slabs are the main concerns, but watch out for glide cracks too! Things are likely to change on Sunday so keep checking this site. If you like our work, please visit the 'join us' page to support. We need to pay for the coffee required to wake up early and agonise over the wording in these forecasts!

It is getting warmer and now afternoon heat and solar radiation is loosening the snow surface - wet avalanches are becoming likely on lower elevation. Some glide cracks are already reported at lower elevations. Keep an eye on signs of intense warming throughout the day as direct sunlight combined with greenhouse effect caused by cloud cover can critically warm up the snowpack even in the alpine. At the same time wind slabs that were built by strong winds on the night of January 23-24 are still there at the higher elevations. As deep persistent weak layer still lurks at the bottom of the snowpack, both of these can trigger a large and destructive step-down avalanche if triggered above such areas.

We're expecting a weekend with some cloud, possible light snow, but no big changes. Recently, full depth natural avalanches have been spotted, caused by a weak layer at the base of the snowpack. You could trigger this layer if you find a shallow spot or start a wind slab above it. Overnight wind on Friday night keeps the possibility of windslabs alive. Warming and settling at lower elevations plus a thinner weak layer at the ground, means that there is less danger below about 2500m.

Night of 20-21 of January was marked by strong NW winds at higher elevations that likely deposited lots of loose snow that was brought by last snowfall on E and SE slopes. These aspects are now home to wind slabs for a certain amount of time. Deep slab problem is still out there - recent natural avalanches spotted in the Alpine and High alpine were full-profile avalanches (see Avalanches section) - this is the sign of a weak layer deep in the snowpack that can nonetheless be triggered by a single rider if that rider finds a shallow spot or starts a wind slab above this weak layer. Lots of large natural slides in the Alpine and High alpine were reported on 21st of January - this suggests that that a lot of potential for full-profile slides is still there.

A few days of upcoming fine weather will be a great time to get out and enjoy the fresh snow. But don't let the 'froth' distract you from making good decisions in the backcountry. Windslabs can be expected on the west half. Deep slabs, although less predictable and harder to trigger, would be big, bad and ugly if they popped. Storm slabs and loose dry 'sluffs' could also be an issue (see Additional Hazards section).

People must have been snow-dancing hard at the Gudauri rave spots lately! This new fall of cold snow adds weight to a snowpack that is unstable in some places. Some W winds moved snow overnight Friday. Storm Slabs and Loose Dry avalanches will be the main problems, but Deep Slabs and Wind Slabs are possible too. Check the deeper snow layers and avoid an unpleasant surprise.

The danger from isolated deep slabs remains, as the chance of triggering windslabs decreases. A new weather system will move into the area by Saturday evening, bringing more snow and different avalanche problems - make sure you always check the latest forecast before starting your tour :) Support our project by joining the organisation, making a donation or booking an avalanche course.

The current storm has turned out to be more productive than expected, delivering around 50 cm of new snow at resort level (2,000 m), with higher amounts at upper elevations. The storm also lasted longer than forecast and only ended on the evening of January 13, prolonging the unstable storm-slab problem by another day. A deep persistent weak layer remains at the base of the snowpack, meaning that all recent snow - including the layer from the January 9-10 storm - now rests on an unstable foundation on W, N and E slopes above 2,000 m If an avalanche is triggered, it could be large, taking away the whole snowpack. A small loose dry, wind or storm slab avalanche could trigger a larger avalanche involving deeper layers.

A new storm system moves into the area, with more snow expected i the next 2 days. Storm snow can be unstable for a while and needs time to settle. At the ground there is weak and sugary snow - an unstable foundation. If an avalanche is triggered, it could be large, taking away the whole snowpack. A small loose dry, wind or storm slab avalanche could trigger a larger avalanche involving deeper layers.

Be cautious for the next couple of days. A lot of snow fell during the last 24 hours, and the snowpack needs time to adjust. Wind slabs are likely to be found on north-facing slopes at high elevations, and storm slabs could be triggered In steep areas on all aspects. At the ground there is weak and sugary snow - an unstable foundation. If an avalanche is triggered, it could be large, taking away the whole snowpack. A small loose dry, wind or storm slab avalanche could trigger a larger avalanche involving deeper layers.

A heavy snowfall is expected in the area today, with strong S winds up high, and a high freezing level (2000 m). Some forecast models predict totals up to 50 cm at higher elevations. The snow is falling on an already unstable snowpack, with a weak base. The additional weight is likely to cause natural avalanches. Today is a day to stick to the resort - the snowpack will need time to adjust to the new load. Wet snow and rain lower down the mountain brings the risk of loose snow slides.

Warm weather with daytime temperatures rising above 0 °C is expected to stay for a whlie now, bringing a period of spring-like conditions with the potential for wet snow avalanches on steeper slopes. Deep persistent weak layer made out of early season snow will, however, remain at higher elevations.

The new snow has had time to settle and bond. Wind has been moving it at higher elevations. An older layer of early-season snow could be a problem in places where there was consistent snow cover - it is weak and sugary.

UPDATED at 22:40 on January 1 A long-awaited major snowfall has arrived just in time for New Year’s Eve. The total amount of new snow has now far exceeded the forecast and currently measures over 100 cm at 2,000 m, with even greater amounts likely at higher elevations. This represents a critical load on the snowpack and calls for the most conservative decision-making. Backcountry travel in the area is not advised.