Gudauri

Starting in the high alpine zone and lowering to the alpine, the new layer of storm snow could be unstable for a time. Winds could create a deeper slab problem on N slopes. On S slopes in high alpine and all aspects on lower elevations a slick re-frozen crust could make the new snow quite reactive.

Weak facet layers in the lower half of the snowpack could create a very large avalanche event if the 'sweet spot' is found that could trigger them - this problem will become more likely as the weight of new snow builds up. Try to minimise your exposure to large paths, and avoid common trigger points such as areas near rocks or steep convex roll-overs. Whumphing and cracking are signs you are on unstable snow. Remember that a whumph (snow collapsing under your feet) could even set off this problem from a distance or from a flat area.

Rain and wet snow at lower elevations will create a new loose snow danger - the rain/snow line will gradually lower until this problem only exists in the sub-alpine.

Recent avalanches:

• Jvari pass road, March18th, report of a size 2 loose wet (?) that hit the road about 1km above Upper Gudauri - happened around 19:30, perhaps a 'cool-down avalanche'.
• Kobi valley March 15th, size 1 and 2 loose wet slides from E aspect, 2900 - 3000m.
• Rocky peak NE of Kudebi, March 14th, 2 x size 2 loose wet, SW aspect 3100m.

Snowpack: Light rain below around 2700m has fallen on a highly variable snowpack as of Tuesday evening, with snow expected to fall to lower elevations and become heavier from Wednesday. Dramatic differences in the snowpack can be seen depending on aspect and elevation. All slopes in the alpine and sub-alpine zones, and sunny slopes in the high alpine, have seen melt-freeze cycles affecting surface layers - lower elevation and sunnier slopes have been affected more by this process, with the heat travelling deeper into the pack. Faceted (weak) snow layers are still present deeper in the snowpack in many areas, even at low elevations in shady spots, and even on sunny slopes at higher elevations. High elevation shady slopes still hold cold snow, with the lower half of the snowpack often composed of loose facet layers between 1 and 4 fingers resistance. Old surface hoar layers and depth hoar can be found in many locations. Hard layers of windslab exist in the upper half of the pack, mostly on W and N facing aspects in the high alpine.

We are at the start of a new weather system that will affect the area for the next few days. Snow totals could be from 60 to 100cm. Strong S winds at the start, easing from Wednesday afternoon. Heaviest snowfall late Wednesday. Freezing level 2500m dropping to 1150 by Friday night.