Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
The main problem right now is daytime heat loosening the surface snow. To avoid this danger, start your tour early and avoid steep sunny slopes when they start to heat up. Watch for signs of surface instability, like roller-balls, small loose slides, or the snow becoming unsupportive to boots and skis. Also keep in mind the older weaks layers in the snow which are mosly found on shady areas and / or higher elevations.
Forecast issued at: 17 March 2025 12:30
Forecast valid until: 19 March 2025 12:30
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slab
Weak facet layers in the lower half of the snowpack could create a very large avalanche event if the 'sweet spot' is found that could trigger them. Try to minimise your exposure to large paths, and avoid common trigger points such as areas near rocks or steep convex roll-overs. Whumphing and cracking are signs you are on unstable snow. Remember that a whumph (snow collapsing under your feet) could even set off this problem from a distance or from a flat area.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
During the day on sunny aspects, surface snow will become unstable on steeper slopes. These slides often start from rocky areas that absorb more heat and can even start from the highest areas. These slides can take out all the snow right down to the ground, and could behave like wet slabs (spreading horizontally across the slope), making them larger and more dangerous.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | High |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanches:
- Jvari pass road, March18th, report of a size 2 loose wet (?) that hit the road about 1km above Upper Gudauri - happened around 19:30, perhaps a 'cool-down avalanche'.
- Kobi valley March 15th, size 1 and 2 loose wet slides from E aspect, 2900 - 3000m.
- Rocky peak NE of Kudebi, March 14th, 2 x size 2 loose wet, SW aspect 3100m.
Snowpack: Light rain below around 2700m has fallen on a highly variable snowpack. Dramatic differences can be seen depending on aspect and elevation. All slopes in the alpine and sub-alpine zones, and sunny slopes in the high alpine, have seen melt-freeze cycles affecting surface layers - lower elevation and sunnier slopes have been affected more by this process, with the heat travelling deeper into the pack. Faceted (weak) snow layers are still present deeper in the snowpack in many areas, even at low elevations in shady spots, and even on sunny slopes at higher elevations. High elevation shady slopes still hold cold snow, with the lower half of the snowpack often composed of loose facet layers between 1 and 4 fingers resistance. Old surface hoar layers and depth hoar can be found in many locations. Hard layers of windslab exist in the upper half of the pack, mostly on W and N facing aspects in the high alpine.
Weather
A couple more warm days before a new storm system moves in from Tuesday afternoon, with strong S winds at the start, easing from Wednesday afternoon
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.