Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
Things are heating up and spring is in the air, but there are still problems lurking deeper in the snowpack. Rising temperatures could make these older layers more reactive for a time, and smaller surface slides could also set them off. Be aware, take the right equipment and learn the skills. Support this project and our forecasters by booking a course, joining the organisation or making a donation.
Forecast issued at: 5 March 2025 15:30
Forecast valid until: 8 March 2025 15:30
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slab
Riders' weight, rapid warming or a smaller surface avalanche could cause weak layers deep in the snowpack to fail. This could create a very large avalanche event, so keep this in mind when planning your route. Will you be in a place of relative safety if this happens? If not, is that a risk you should you take? Whumphing and cracking are signs you are on unstable snow. Remember you could even set off this problem from a distance or from a flat area.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
There could be some areas of windslab near ridges, after recent W, SW and NW winds. Watch out for obvious build-ups of snow, signs of previous wind on the snow surface, and shooting cracks. Keep in mind that a small windslab avalanche could start a bigger persistent slab avalanche.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
As the sun gets stronger and the air temperature increases, surface snow will become unstable. Even a small slide could trigger a deeper slab. These wet avalanches could also behave like slabs, making them larger and more dangerous.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | Afternoon |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanches:
- Evidence of a very large avalanche in Miliona valley, NW, 3000m, was seen 5th March (estimated a few days old, and possibly size 5!!!)
- A skier-triggered size 2 persistent slab that failed near the ground was reported on March 2nd - Kobi valley, NW, 2400m.
- Large avalanches (size 3 - 4) seen near Lomisa (NE, 2200m) on 27 February - persistent slabs triggered by wind loading. Multiple similar natural avalanches up to size 2 also reported 27th and 28th.
- Whumphing, cracking and remote triggering have been reported in the last week.
Snowpack: Periods of moderate to strong NW, W and SW winds in the days following the last big snow storm (which ended on on Feb 21st) have resulted in areas of windslab near ridges. There is a weak interface between the snow that fell in the last storm and the previous snow layers - this can be found at most elevations and aspects. There are also weak and unstable layers lower in the snowpack and near ground, which now have a considerable weight on them and can produce large avalanches when they fail.
Weather
Mostly fine for the next few days with light to moderate N and NW winds. Freezing level 1250 Wednesday, increasing to 3200m by Saturday.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.