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Gudauri

Icon for Avalanche Hazard: Considerable

Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Widespread natural persistent slabs are seen throughout elevations and aspects. Previous winds and expected moderate winds in the forecast will result in an increasing danger of the wind slabs and could result in increased loading of the persistent weak layer.

A big weight of new snow forms a slab above the unstable previous surface layer. Anywhere without previous tracks is dangerous if it is steeper than 30 degrees, or traveling below a slope more than 30 degrees. Do not be fooled into following others tracks, thinking the slope is safe. You can still hit a weaker spot in the snowpack, that could cause the persistent weak layer to fail and spread to a large avalanche.

Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Very large avalanches could occur if a small avalanche triggers the weaker layers buried in the snowpack. Life and health are precious. Go with qualified guides or take an avalanche course and make a plan that allows you come back another day.

Forecast issued at: ⁨25 February 2025 12:30⁩

Forecast valid until: ⁨28 February 2025 12:30⁩

Forecaster: ⁨SaRah Busse⁩

Forecast Area

High Alpine

> 2600m

Icon for Avalanche Hazard: Considerable Elevation Hazard Diagram high-alpine considerable

3 Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Alpine

2000m - 2600m

Icon for Avalanche Hazard: Considerable Elevation Hazard Diagram alpine considerable

3 Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Sub Alpine

< 2000m

Icon for Avalanche Hazard: Considerable Elevation Hazard Diagram sub-alpine considerable

3 Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slab

Problem Type Persistent Slab Icon
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Aspect/Elevation
Avalanche Size
Avalanche Size
Likelihood
Likelihood
A slab formed over a persistent weak layer.

In the last 3 days there has been significant snowfall. It is starting to consoliate and stabilise, but with around 150cm of new snow at 2600m, storm slab could be present on all aspects and elevations. Watch out for steep unsupported slopes and rollovers, where these are most likely to be triggered. The weight of a slide from the storm slab could trigger weaker layers further down, increasing the size and consequences of the avalanche. Choose safe test slopes to see how reactive the storm slab is before committing. Look for shooting cracks and listen for whoomping and avoid these slopes.

Caution with losing skis and getting stuck in this deep powder as well. It can be dangerous just falling in the snowpack and energy draining trying to get out. There were several rescues in the resort of people that were unable to get themselves out.

The storm slab is expected to stabilise over the next several days, without expected new snow. You can know this is starting to stablise when your boot or ski sinks less in the snow.

Sensitivity The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut.
Distribution Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations.
Time of Day All day
Trend No change
Confidence Moderate

Wind Slab

Problem Type Wind Slab Icon
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Aspect/Elevation
Avalanche Size
Avalanche Size
Likelihood
Likelihood
A cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind drifted snow.

Watch out for build-ups or pillows of wind-deposited snow around ridges. Wind directions appear to be primarily from the SW, but cornices can be seen on all aspects with the recent winds and contouring around the peaks.

Look for cornices, blowing snow and snow that is rippled and crusty and expect that the other side of the ridge, you could find wind slabs. These could build over time with the snow available for transport with the winds increasing over the next several days.

Even a small slab could also trigger the weaker layers buried lower in the snowpack. If you see build-ups or pillows of wind-deposited snow, choose small, safe test slopes for ski tests or use hand shear tests to see how reactive the snow is before dropping in off of the ridgelines.

Sensitivity The specific avalanche problem type is highly reactive to human rider triggers.
Distribution Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations.
Time of Day All day
Trend Deteriorating
Confidence Moderate

Recent Avalanches and Snowpack

Widespread natural avalanches seen on all aspects and at all elevations. People have reported whoomping and cracks, human triggered avalanches as well as remote triggers after the loading from the new snow on all aspects and elevations. It appears to be failing on the 10 cm surface facets and suncrusts that were present before ~80cm of new snow fell and formed a storm slab. Several avalanches occured at ridgelines where they are most likely triggered by wind loading slopes with more snow. From looking at the ridges and seeing cornice growth from the storm it appears the winds were from varying directions building wind slabs, loading the slope more and then breaking deeper down in the snowpack.

Collapsing, cracking and whumphing occured while investigating low angle terrain near an avalanche on Sadzele W. Here is the snowpack profile from a pit we dug on 23.02.2025: https:snowpilot.org/node/72871 Results: ECTP22@ 60cm. Surface hoar and facets seen in the layer that failed.

Recent avalanches: Sunday 25.02.2025 Sioni Valley triggered on low angle connected terrain from 300m away. Reported whumping and cracking each step. This is scary because it means you can bring an avalanche down from above you even if you are on low-angle terrain. Monday 24.02.2025. Khada valley between Kudbi and Chrdili size 2 slab.

The area has received significant amounts of new snow with predominately SW winds both last week and predicted. Wind slabs are possible on W, NW, N, NE and E aspects at high elevations.

Before the storm, surface hoar layers and weak, sugary layers around crusts and hard slabs were seen in the snowpack on various aspects and elevations. These layers caused easy failures in snow tests. Many areas also have a layer of sugary crystals at or near the ground. With the weight of the new snow, these layers are not to be trusted and need to be checked carefully.

There is a lot of soft new surface snow around right now that could be moved by wind, or loosened by sun in steep rocky areas. Expect the windslabs to build with the winds expected over the next several days.

Weather

Light snow is expected Tuesday afternoon and slightly increasing on Wednesday. Moderate winds are predicted for the next several days predominately from the SW. Moderate winds are perfect for building wind slabs. The temperatures are expected to stay cold and is expected to be cloudy with the sun starting to peek out on Thursday.

Disclaimer

Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.