Gudauri
Natural avalanches are likely, human-triggered avalanches are very likely. Large avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas.
Not the time to be venturing out of the resort boundaries. With significant amounts of new snow, and wind at upper elevations, the danger will be high for the next couple of days. Older layers could be triggered by the new snow moving, creating even larger avalanches. Stay safe, and please share this forecast with your contacts!
Forecast issued at: 19 February 2025 23:30
Forecast valid until: 21 February 2025 23:30
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
4 High
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
4 High
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
4 High
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slab
At all aspects and elevations storm slabs could be triggered by the weight of one rider. Check safe test slopes and watch for cracks in the snow.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is highly reactive to human rider triggers. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | High |
Wind Slab
Wind has moved snow at upper elevations and around ridgelines, and there will be some large deposits that would be easily triggered. With this large volume of snow, cross-loading is likely (snow drifting sideways across a slope and loading other aspects).
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is highly reactive to human rider triggers. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | High |
Persistent Slab
There are layers of loose snow at various depths within the snowpack and also at the ground. These have failed easily in some tests. Avalanches starting in the new snow layer could trigger these deeper layers, causing a much larger event.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Report of an avalanche on the road below Gudauri on Wednesday, details still unknown. The road was blocked for quite a few hours.
The area is receiving very significant amounts of new snow with SW winds. 150 cms has fallen since the start of the storm until late Wednesday, with more expected in the next 48 hours. The new snow will be unstable and poorly bonded at first. Wind slabs are expected on W, NW, N, NE and E aspects at high elevations.
Before the storm, surface hoar layers and weak, sugary layers around crusts and hard slabs were seen in the snowpack on various aspects and elevations. These layers caused easy failures in snow tests. Many areas also have a layer of sugary crystals at or near the ground. With the weight of new snow, these layers are not to be trusted, and will need to be checked carfeully.
Weather
Up to 60cm additional snow is possible until the end of Friday. Moderate S and SW winds on Weds becoming lighter Thurs and Friday. Freezing level 1250m dropping to 400m by Friday.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.