Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
Recent snowfall brought up to 40 cms of fresh snow in the High Alpine that was redistributed by strong westerly winds that followed the snowfall. This contributed to the accumulation of considerable amount of snow on the shaded aspect slopes in the High Alpine as well as in the Alpine where the layers of faceted snow were previously located. Right now we are entering the long warm period that might make these layers more stable but the current problem will definitely persist for a long time.
Forecast issued at: 7 January 2025 00:00
Forecast valid until: 14 January 2025 00:00
Forecaster: Petr Zherdev
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slab
Prolonged dry periods this season lead to formation of multiple layers of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack as well as in the middle of it. Snowpack was reported to consist entirely of faceted snow on some slopes. Whumphing was reported in multiple areas in the High Alpine
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
Most recent snowfall of 06 of January brought 20-30 cms of fresh snow in the alpine and up to 40 cms in the high alpine. That was immediately followed by rather strong westerly winds in the High Alpine that moved this fresh snow to the leeward slopes. Evidence of such winds was observed in the Sadzele area above 3000 m.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
Upcoming warm period will be creating conditions for wet loose avalanches on sunny aspect slopes in the aftenoon
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | Afternoon |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
date: january 07, size 1 to 2, aspect: [N, NE], elevation: High Alpine, triggered by: Natural, type: Dry loose, Description: A number of natural dry loose avalanches were spotted on the NE faces of Bidara ovelooking the Kobi resort area
date: january 07, size 2, aspect: [W, SW]. elevation: High Alpine, triggered by: Explosives, type: Dry loose, Description: Number of dry loose avalanches on Sadzele W, SW faces triggered by explosives planted by the resort patrol during avalanche mitigation procedures.
Snowpack: First and the heaviest snowfall of the season occured on 25-27th of November with some 60-80 cms of fresh snow that has settled down to 40-45 cms of snow at 2000 m on S aspects. This snowfall was followed by a long cold and dry period with clear skies and moderate to strong westerly winds. Two smaller snowfalls later occured on the 18th and 28th of december and brought around 20cms each at 2000 m. There was a warmer period with air temps above 0 celcius throughout the day in between of these. This was followed by a most recent snowfall of 06 January that brought up to 40 cms of fresh snow in the High Alpine. Current snowpack depth at 2000 m. on S slope is around 60 cms. Frequent whumphing was reported in the High Alpine on 7th of January.
Weather
Long warm period is coming to Gudauri with temperatures around and above 0 celcius at midday at 2000 m. and mild but solid freezing temps during the night. Clear skies with no significant wind. This period is forecasterd to last up until 13th of January.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.