Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
A long-awaited snowfall is finally here yet it is bringing some complications in the higher elevation areas and most likely won't be able to strenghten the snowpack after the december's dry period. Watch out for the rocks covered with a thin layer of fresh snow!
ATTENTION: This is a test forecast intended to continue the testing of a new feature that is currently in the works: Although it is somewhat based on the current situation, we still don't have enough observations this season. This forecast should NOT be used as an exclusive tool in backcountry travel planning and decision making.
Forecast issued at: 27 December 2024 00:00
Forecast valid until: 3 January 2025 00:00
Forecaster: Petr Zherdev
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slab
Long dry and cold period after the first snowfall of the season most likely created a heavily faceted layer near the ground on shady aspects that probably wasn't completely stabilizied by the recent warm period on higher elevations
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Low |
Loose Dry
Dry loose avalanches are probable on steeper slopes
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Storm Slab
Storm slab avalanches are to be taken into the consideration in case of heavy snow accumulation during the ongoing storm
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
As the air temp at lower elevations will be quite high during the storm this will create the possibility of wet loose avalanches
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | Afternoon |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
date: december 22, size: 2, aspect: [N,NW,WE], elevation: High Apine, triggered by: SnowMobile, type: Wind Slab, description: Fresh natural avalanche observed on 22nd of december.
date: december 31, size: 2, aspect: [N,NE], elevation: high hlpine, triggered by: natural, type: wind slab, description: Fresh natural avalanche observed on 31 of december.
date: december 28, size: 2, aspect: [N,NW], elevation: high alpine, triggered by: Natural, type: Wind Slab, description: Fresh natural avalanche observed on 28 of december.
Snowpack: First heavy snowfall occured on 25-27th of november with some 60-80 cms of fresh snow that settled down to 40-45 cms of snow at 2000 m on S aspects. Long dry cold period with clear nights and some strong W and NW winds followed. Warm and damp wather arrived on 20th of december. Some surface hoar was reported on N aspect on mt. Chrdili at 2000 meters on 26th of december.
Weather
Moderate to heavy snowfall forecasted during the night of 27th and morning of 28th of december bringing 20-30 cms of fresh snow with air temps being -4C to -6C at around 2000 meters. No significant wind is forecasted during or immediately after the storm. Later, as the sky will clear through 29 of december, air temp will drop to around -8C.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.