Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
Current warm period is coming to an end there is a moderate snowfall forecasted for 28 of December that will be accompanied by a relative temperature drop. Period of warmth should have caused some stabilisation in near-ground faceted layer yet this layer is still there on shaded aspects.
ATTENTION: This is a test forecast intended to try out a new feature that is currently in the works: Although it is somewhat based on the current situation, we still don't have enough observations this season. This forecast should NOT be used as an exclusive tool in backcountry travel planning and decision making.
Forecast issued at: 25 December 2024 00:00
Forecast valid until: 28 December 2024 00:00
Forecaster: Petr Zherdev
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slab
First heavy snowfall of the season that occured on 25-27th of november accumulated some 60-80 cms of fresh snow. This snow, having settled in under clear sky and cold temperatures, most likely became a thick layer of facets that will create little to no support for the upcoming layers of snow and create a potential for bigger full profile avalanches later in the season. Mid-december's long warm period should have contributed to the stabilization of this layer in some areas,yet this most likely did not change the situation in general
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Low |
Loose Wet
As moisture percolated the snowpack down to the ground on the sunny aspects during the current warm period, this should have created the possibility for small loose wet avalanches
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Heavy snowfall on 25-27th of november with some 60-80 cms of fresh snow No recent avalanche activity was reported Long warm period that began on 17th of December
For test purposes (these were not the real recent avalanches) Avalanches 17 december, Bidara, SW aspect, wind slab 16 - 17 of december, Lomisa ridge, NW-W aspects, glide 15-16 december, Chrdili, S - SE aspects, glide
Weather
Partly cloudy up until Saturday when a moderate cold snowfall with no significant wind will bring about 15 cms of fresh snow. Air temps will be below 0 during the night (reaching as low as -10C) and slightly above 0C mid-day
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.