Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
A small amount of recent new snow, moved by wind at high elevations, means there is a possibility of loose snow and windslab avalanches running on recent melt-freeze crusts. In addition, there is evidence of a weak layer inside the snowpack. While this layer is probably only found in isolated areas with a thin snowpack (<150 cm), this layer can cause size 2 (or possibly size 3) avalanches if triggered.
Forecast issued at: 28 February 2024 22:00
Forecast valid until: 2 March 2024 22:00
Forecaster: Peter Schön
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Dry
Recent snow has fallen on top of a hard crust on all aspects. On shady aspects, there are weak, sugary, and non-cohesive snow crystals at the surface. Small loose dry 'sluffs' moving on the crust layers have been observed in the past week. Keep this in mind when approaching steep terrain with hazards like rocks or cliffs below.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
Small areas of windslab can be found near ridges on a range of aspects due to recent N/NE winds moving snow in the last few days. They may run fast on buried crust layers.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak, facetted snow layers have been found around buried mid-pack crusts and in areas with shallow snow depth. The problem is worse in the north of the region where the snow is shallower. With recent warm temperatures these layers should have stabilised at lower elevations, but remain cautious on steep terrain.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
Mild temperatures and direct solar radiation increase the likelihood of small wet-loose avalanches, both skier-trigger and natural, especially from mid-day onwards and in the afternoon.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
Size 2 wind slab and size 2 glide slab east aspect, 2700 m; date unknown. A few small dry loose slides in steep areas reported over the last week.
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects (more commonly E, S and W) below about 2600 m, some up to size 2. These can release at any time - if you see cracks in the snow, do not stop under these areas!
Snowpack:
The small amount of new snow (15 - 20 cm) that fell over the last week was moved by recent winds. There are melt-freeze crusts on most aspects under the recent snow layer, extending up to over 3000 m on N slopes and higher on S slopes. Cold night temperatures create surface facets and surface hoar (a weak layer on top of the snowpack). Buried crusts and weak layers can still be found deeper in the snowpack in some places, especially on N aspects at higher elevations. This layer was reactive in recent instability tests on NE aspects in 3000 m. Watch out for sugary (faceted) snow in areas where the snow is shallow.
Weather
Fine weather with light variable, mostly light winds for the next three days; mild daytime temperatures (-2°C at 2200 m) and cold nights (to -13 at -2200 m°)
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.