Gudauri
Natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
Small loose dry ('sluff') avalanches can be started on shady aspects at higher elevations. Small loose wet snow slides are more likely on sunny slopes at low elevations but could also happen on some steep sunny slopes higher up.
Forecast issued at: 19 February 2024 18:00
Forecast valid until: 22 February 2024 18:00
Forecaster: Luke Frisken
High Alpine
> 2600m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Dry
15 to 20cm of unconsolidated snow is sitting on top of a crust in some places, especially on more solar aspects. Small avalanches on this layer have been observed in the past 3 days. Keep this in mind when approaching steep terrain with hazards like rocks or cliffs below.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
Below 2600 m on sunny aspects, it might be possible for a single rider to start small loose snow avalanches. They will be easier to start from mid-morning to late afternoon, on steep slopes and in lower elevations.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak, facetted snow layers have been found around buried mid-pack crusts and in areas with shallow snow depth. The problem is worse in the north of the region where the snow is shallower. With recent warm temperatures these layers should have stabilised at lower elevations, but remain cautious on steep terrain.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
Several small (size 1) loose dry avalanches observed on E to NE aspects above 2900 m.
Several small (size 1) loose wet avalanches observed during the previous warm weather period, SW-S-SE aspects, below 2900 m.
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects (more commonly E, S and W) below about 2600m, some up to size 2. If you see cracks in the snow, do not stop under these areas!
Snowpack:
Light rain at low elevations and about 15 cm of new snow at higher elevations on Thursday and Friday. Loose dry snow has been reported on N and E aspects at higher elevations. Buried crusts with weak snow layers around them are now less of a problem on lower elevation and sunny slopes. In northern areas (North of Kobi Valley), where the snowpack is thinner, weak snow might still be present. Watch out for sugary (faceted) snow in areas where the snow is shallow. Warm temperatures have been gradually strengthening the snowpack, but the problem layers should not be forgotten yet. Check out recent snow profiles (or add your own!) at snowpilot.org
Weather
Partly cloudy with light mostly South winds for the next 2 days. Freezing level ranging from 500m overnight up to 1500m during the day.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.