Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
Light snow up high and rain below 2000m could cause some surface instabilities on Thursday and Friday. Remain cautious on slopes with shallow snowpacks, as there are buried crust/facet layers that may react to skiers - these should be gaining strength but can't be ruled out just yet.
Forecast issued at: 15 February 2024 00:00
Forecast valid until: 17 February 2024 00:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slab
Small amounts of new snow on forecast for Thursday and Friday has the potential to form small slab avalanches, especially if the snow totals or winds are higher than expected.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
A high freezing level means that below 2000m some light rain is expected over the next two days. This could be enough to loosen the surface snow and cause small avalanches.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak, facetted snow layers have been observed in the region at all elevation bands, around buried crusts and in areas with shallow snow depth. Where these weak layers have enough dense snow above them, medium to large avalanches could be started. The problem is worse in the north of the region where the snow is shallower. Be cautious in shallow snowpacks, and take "whumpfs" as a clear sign of instability - and the presence of a weak layer that can easily slide in steeper terrain.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
8 February - several small (size 1) loose wet avalanches on west side of Sadzele
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects (more commonly E, S and W) below about 2600m, some up to size 2.
Snowpack: Warm temperatures and sun have caused melt-freeze cycles over the last few days below 2500 on N aspects and below 3000 metres on S aspects. Melt-freeze crusts with weak snow layers around them are now less of a problem on lower elevation and sunny slopes. In northern areas (North of Kobi Valley), the snowpack is thinner and there are critical weaknesses around crusts and at the ground. Watch out for weak, sugary (faceted) snow in areas where the snow is shallow. Warm temperatures in recent days are gradually strengthening the snowpack, but this process does not happen quickly. Check out recent snow profiles (or add your own!) at snowpilot.org
Weather
The last few of days have been very warm with light winds. Thursday and Friday brings cloud and light snow with light S/SE winds, freezing level 2000 - 2250m. Snow totals could be up to 15cm.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.