Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
Lower elevation slopes are heating up on all aspects, with east, south and west aspects most affected. These same aspects are also getting warm at higher elevations. A 'melt-freeze' cycle has been happening over the last few days which is strengthening some weaker layers at lower elevations. Remain cautious on slopes with shallow snowpacks, as there are buried crust/facet layers that may react to skiers - these should be gaining strength but can't be ruled out just yet.
Forecast issued at: 13 February 2024 23:00
Forecast valid until: 14 February 2024 23:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Warm temperatures and direct solar radiation increase the likelihood of wet-loose avalanches, both skier-triggered and natural, especially from mid-day onwards and in the afternoon. Some of these could be big enough to bury you especially in valleys or hollows - watch out for these 'terrain traps'!
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | Afternoon |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak, facetted snow layers have been observed in the region at all elevation bands, around buried crusts and in areas with shallow snow depth. Where these weak layers have enough dense snow above them, medium to large avalanches could be started. The problem is worse in the north of the region where the snow is shallower. Be cautious in shallow snowpacks, and take "whumpfs" as a clear sign of instability - and the presence of a weak layer that can easily slide in steeper terrain.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
8 February - several small (size 1) loose wet avalanches on west side of Sadzele
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects (more commonly E, S and W) below about 2600m, some up to size 2.
Snowpack: Warm temperatures and sun have caused melt-freeze cycles over the last few days below 2500 on N aspects and below 3000 metres on S aspects. Melt-freeze crusts with weak snow layers around them are now less of a problem on lower elevation and sunny slopes. In northern areas (North of Kobi Valley), the snowpack is thinner and there are critical weaknesses around crusts and at the ground. Watch out for weak, sugary (faceted) snow in areas where the snow is shallow. Warm temperatures in recent days are gradually strengthening the snowpack, but this process does not happen quickly. Check out recent snow profiles (or add your own!) at snowpilot.org
Weather
The last few of days have been very warm with light winds. This weather pattern continues on Wednesday before a change moves in on Thursday. Freezing level 2700m on Wednesday.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.