Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
New snow and wind means the avalanche danger is increasing today, and by the end of the day there will be considerable danger in the high alpine. Not the best day for touring up high.
Forecast issued at: 5 February 2024 09:00
Forecast valid until: 6 February 2024 09:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slab
Fresh wind slabs in areas facing east can be triggered by a single rider. Older wind slabs in south-facing slopes might still remain reactive but would need a bigger load.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is highly reactive to human rider triggers. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Storm Slab
Small storm slabs will start to build today, more of a problem on east-facing slopes.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | High |
Persistent Slab
Weak snow has been seen in the region, around buried crusts and in areas with shallow snow depth. If these weak layers have enough dense snow above them, avalanches could be triggered. The problem is worse on the north of the region where the snow is shallower.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
4 February - size 1 wind slab near Sioni valley, 2000m, N aspect - failed on weak snow near the ground. 31 Jan (suspected, exact date unknown): Size 1 windslabs on S aspects, 3200 m and 2900 m, little and big Sadzele.
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects below about 2600m, some up to size 2.
Snowpack: Recent W and SW winds have created new wind slabs. Melt-freeze crusts can be found at lower elevations and sunny aspects, and there can be weak snow layers around these crusts. In the south of the forecast area underlying snowpack is generally stable, especially at lower elevations (below 2000m). In northern areas (North of Kobi valley), the snowpack is thinner and critical weaknesses around crusts, and at the ground, have been found. Watch out for weak (faceted) snow in areas where the snow is shallow, and crust/facet layers. Check out recent snow profiles (or add your own!) at snowpilot.org
Weather
Cool air tempertures have continued. Strong W winds moved snow early on Sunday. Snow showers develeoping Monday morning turning to heavy snow at night, moderate W winds becoming strong by evening. Freezing level 1350m.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.