Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
Today brought 25-30 cm of new snow in the alpine (≈ 2000-2600 m), with another 10-20 cm expected tomorrow. This creates a widespread storm/new snow problem on all aspects, that will take a few days to settle. In the high-alpine, the total observed snow amounts were slighty less, but the snow has been moved by winds and created windslabs in wind-sheltered areas. Note that this includes the entries to popular runs on the backside of Sadzele (e.g., Kobi Pro and Kobi Light), and windslab is nearly impossible to avoid here. These runs should be avoided, despite the lower rating for the high alpine. The high alpine should generally be avoided tomorrow due to poor visibility and the difficulties in managing avalanche terrain. There have also been reports of isolated surface hoar on wind-sheltered areas, some of which might have survived yesterday's winds and are now buried as a weak layer under new snow. Also, watch for facetted, shallow (≈ 1 m) and weak snowpacks, especially in rocky areas and below ridgelines.
Forecast issued at: 4 January 2024 21:00
Forecast valid until: 5 January 2024 21:00
Forecaster: Peter S
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slab
25 cm of new snow in combination with another 10+cm of snow tomorrow create reactive storm snow (new snow) slabs on all aspects, particularly in the alpine
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
Moderate to strong winds with coming from varying directions in the high alpine, combined with 20-25 cm of fresh snow have created reactive windslabs today (4 Jan). More snow and winds tomorrow will additional wind-transported snow on top, particularly behind ridges, gullies and cross- (sideways) loaded slopes.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | High |
Persistent Slab
Facetted, weak layer above a melt-freeze crust.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
January 4:
25-30 cm of new snow in the alpine, less in the high alpine. Cracking in windslabs in sheltered pockets near Kobi Pass.
January 3:
- Snow Pit on Sadzele West Peak SE Aspect
- Bidara E aspect, 2970m. Test profile adjacent to avalanche reported on Dec 29: Slide failed on small 1-2 mm facets on melt-freeze crust. Test results on the failure layer: CTM11 reistant planar and ECTP23 down 45 cm. Profile link: https://snowpilot.org/node/57950
Weather
Moderate winds in alpine and moderate to strong winds in high alpine, combined with 20-30 cm of snow. Temperatures -5 °to -10° at 2200 m.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.