Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
Over 1 meter of new snow combined with moderate to strong winds lead to considerable avalanche hazard in the high alpine and alpine. There has been some limited evidence in the snowpack for persistent slab problem on S aspects, but propagation potential has yet to be confirmed. Watch for glide slabs and cracks that formed on NE and E aspects below 2500 m. Please note that we currently have limited observations, and there is some uncertainty around some parts of this forecast.
Forecast issued at: 26 December 2023 21:00
Forecast valid until: 27 December 2023 21:00
Forecaster: Luke Frisken
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slab
Possibly variable distribution due to terrain, watch closely for the signs of wind slab on any aspect you are travelling on. With the strong winds, loading may be further down the slope than you might typically expect.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Storm Slab
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Low |
Loose Wet
Mild warm temperatures and solar radiation may increase the likelihood of wet loose avalanches during the afternoon.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is unreactive to human rider triggers. Generally only possible with high additional load. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | Afternoon |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Low |
Persistent Slab
Thin layer of facets over or under a melt-freeze or sun crust.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Low |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
18th - 20th of December:
Snow pits on S, SE, N and NE aspects between Sadzele and Bidara at or above 3000 m indicate a "right side up" snowpack with density increasing with depth. Some facets were found close to the ground on N aspects. A very thin layer of facets was found overlying a crust down 75 cm. Extended column tests yielded no results. Snow depths ranging from 180 cm on N to 120 cm on S. There was an observed shallow pocket with a depth of 80 cm on NE at 3100 m with a CT11 down 10 cm on an interface within the settling snow.
22nd - 26th of December:
We have received about 120cm of new snow during the storm the past 5 days, with wind loading predominantly from the W, but aso from the SW-S-SE aspects during some periods.
Weather
27th of December:
In the early morning we have moderate winds from the NW, shifting to variable directions during the day.Temperatures ranging from -9C during the morning to 0C during the day. Partly cloudy.
28th of December:
Around 5cm of new snow, winds changing from moderate S to strong W in the morning. Temperatures ranging from -3C in the morning to -7C in the afternoon and -15C in the late evening. Overcast during the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.