Gudauri
Natural avalanches are likely, human-triggered avalanches are very likely. Large avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas.
A lot of snow has fallen over the last few days and this will continue on Tuesday. Wind has moved this snow at high elevations. Old weak layers are now overloaded and large avalanches are possible, especially in areas where the previous snowpack was shallow.
Forecast issued at: 14 April 2025 13:00
Forecast valid until: 17 April 2025 13:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
4 High
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slab
Heavy snowfall is causing a danger of the new snow layer sliding in steep areas - a slide could be 60 - 100cms deep. It could trigger a deeper weak layer, creating a very dangerous avalanche.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | High |
Persistent Slab
With a new heavy load of snow, weak facet layers in the lower half of the snowpack could create large avalanche events. Be wary of wide, steep slopes in the high alpine especially on N aspects, and avoid common trigger points such as areas where the snow is shallow (e.g. near rocks) or steep convex roll-overs. Areas north of Jvari pass where the snow is shallower are more dangerous.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
Strong winds at higher elevations have built windslabs that will be easy to trigger for a while. Avoid steep areas that look loaded and 'fat'. S winds have now shifted to N, building slabs in many locations.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is highly reactive to human rider triggers. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent Avalanches:
Widespread large slab avalanches up to size 4 reported north of Gudauri, Sunday 13th - Miliona and areas near Narvani valley, N, NE, and NW aspects, above 2500m Storm and wind slabs seen from Gudauri resort Sunday 13th size 1 - 2, NW and SE, 3000m. 11th April - Kobi Valley, Large size 2, likely windslab, triggered by avalanche control, NW 3000m.
Snowpack:
Up to 100cm of new snow in the high alpine zone over the last few days, with smaller amounts accumulating at lower elevations. Melt-freeze crusts can be found under the new snow. Strong SW, S and SE winds recorded over the last few days. Before the recent snow, the snowpack was warm and moist everywhere, even at high elevations on shady aspects. There are still loose snow crystals near the ground in the high alpine zone, which were observed to fail across the block in ECT tests. Previous rain had eroded most of the snowpack below 2500m on S aspects, with more snow surviving in some N aspect areas.
Weather
Snow continues on Monday and Tuesday, with up to 50cm more possible. Winds predicted to be light to moderate from the north. Freezing level around 2000m.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.