Gudauri
Natural avalanches are likely, human-triggered avalanches are very likely. Large avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas.
As the storm continues on Saturday, a large weight of new snow will build up on top of a snowpack that is already unstable in places. Natural avalanches can be expected, and riders will be able to trigger slides easily on steep slopes - these could be very large if deeper layers break. Take it easy for a day or two and give the snowpack some time to adjust.
Forecast issued at: 21 March 2025 21:30
Forecast valid until: 23 March 2025 21:30
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
4 High
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
4 High
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slab
By the end of Saturday there could be up to 100cm of new snow, sitting on a melt-freeze crust in many places. This is a large mass of snow and will be easy to trigger on steep slopes. Natural avalanches can be expected. Keep in mind that the new snow can also easily form loose dry 'sluff' avalanches in steep areas that can turn out to be surprisingly big.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak facet layers in the lower half of the snowpack could create a very large avalanche event if triggered. The extra weight of the new snow makes these avalanches more likely. Try to minimise your exposure to large paths, and avoid common trigger points such as areas near rocks or steep convex roll-overs. Whumphing and cracking are signs you are on unstable snow. Remember that a whumph (snow collapsing under your feet) could even set off this problem from a distance or from a flat area.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
At lower elevations the snow was preceded by rain, and the new snow is wet and heavy. It could easily slide on steep areas, taking away all the snow down to ground. When the sun comes out on Sunday this hazard will increase and move to the alpine zone on steep, sunny slopes.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | High |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
No recent avalanches observed over the last 3 days due to low visibility.
Snowpack: Up to 60cm of new snow has accumulated at higher elevations, with around 40cm at the base of the resort. This new snow has landed on icy melt-freeze crusts above a moist snowpack in most places, except for high elevation shady areas. Despite recent warming, faceted (weak) snow layers are still present at higher elevations, even on sunny slopes. High elevation shady slopes still hold cold snow, with the lower half of the snowpack often composed of loose facet layers between 1 and 4 fingers resistance. Old surface hoar layers and depth hoar can be found in many locations. Hard layers of windslab were found in the upper half of the pack, mostly on W and N facing aspects in the high alpine.
Weather
This storm is not done with us yet - up to 30cm more could fall during Saturday with light winds and cool tempertaues before starting to clear on Sunday.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.