Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
Some windslabs around, a warming snowpack, and buried weaknesses are the dangers to watch out for over the next few days. Be aware, take the right equipment and learn the skills. Support this project and our forecasters by booking a course, joining the organisation or making a donation.
Forecast issued at: 9 March 2025 08:30
Forecast valid until: 12 March 2025 08:30
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slab
Riders' weight, rapid warming or a smaller surface avalanche could cause weak layers deep in the snowpack to fail. This could create a very large avalanche event, so keep this in mind when planning your route. Will you be in a place of relative safety if this happens? If not, is that a risk you should you take? Whumphing and cracking are signs you are on unstable snow. Remember that a whumph (snow collapsing under your feet) could even set off this problem from a distance or from a flat area.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
There could be some areas of windslab near ridges, after recent N and W winds. Watch out for obvious build-ups of snow, signs of previous wind on the snow surface, and shooting cracks. Keep in mind that a small windslab avalanche could start a bigger persistent slab avalanche.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
As the sun gets stronger and the air temperature increases, surface snow will become unstable. Even a small slide could trigger a deeper slab. These wet avalanches could also behave like slabs, making them larger and more dangerous.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | Afternoon |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanches:
- Some very large avalanches failed on buried weak layers around Feb 28th. Lomisa ridge NE 2200m, Miliona valley NW 3000m, Sadzele NE, 3200m, size 3 - 5
- A couple of size 2 windslabs seen 8th March on NE aspects around 3000m, Miketi and Sadzele
- A skier-triggered size 2 persistent slab that failed near the ground was reported on March 2nd - Kobi valley, NW, 2400m.
- Wet loose slides seen 7th and 8th March, size 1 and 2, Lower Kobi and the peak north of Kudebi.
Snowpack: Periods of moderate to strong N, NW, and W winds in the last few days have left areas of windslab near ridges. There is a weak interface between the more recent snow and the previous snow layers - this can be found at most elevations and aspects. There are also weak and unstable layers lower in the snowpack and near ground, which now have a considerable weight on them and can produce large avalanches when they fail.
Weather
Mostly fine for the next few days with light to moderate N and NW winds. Freezing level 1250 Wednesday, increasing to 3200m by Saturday.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.