< Back

Gudauri

Icon for Avalanche Hazard: Considerable

Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Widespread natural persistent slabs are seen throughout elevations and aspects, as observed by all the observed and reported whumping, shooting cracks and collapse of the snowpack. Wind slabs that built from 25.02 were loading the already reactive persistent weak layer and caused large to very large avalanches. These are expected to start healing.

The snowpack continues to be dangerous if it is steeper than 30 degrees, or traveling below a slope more than 30 degrees. Do not be fooled into following others tracks, thinking the slope is safe. You can still hit a weaker spot in the snowpack, that could cause the persistent weak layer to fail and spread to a large avalanche.

As the sun comes out watch for small dry loose avalanches especially near rocks and trees and increased sensitivity of the slabs.

Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Very large avalanches could occur if a small avalanche triggers the weaker layers buried in the snowpack. Go with qualified guides or take an avalanche course and make a plan that allows you come back another day.

Forecast issued at: ⁨28 February 2025 17:30⁩

Forecast valid until: ⁨4 March 2025 17:30⁩

Forecaster: ⁨SaRah Busse⁩

Forecast Area

High Alpine

> 2600m

Icon for Avalanche Hazard: Considerable Elevation Hazard Diagram high-alpine considerable

3 Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Alpine

2000m - 2600m

Icon for Avalanche Hazard: Considerable Elevation Hazard Diagram alpine considerable

3 Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Sub Alpine

< 2000m

Icon for Avalanche Hazard: Considerable Elevation Hazard Diagram sub-alpine considerable

3 Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slab

Problem Type Persistent Slab Icon
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Aspect/Elevation
Avalanche Size
Avalanche Size
Likelihood
Likelihood
A slab formed over a persistent weak layer.

Several persistent slabs have been triggered deeper down by recent wind slabs. The result is large and very large avalanches. Widespread shooting cracking, collapsing, and whumping show these layers are not stable. These layers caused by a rider's weight could trigger large avalanches on slopes of more than 30 degrees. Dig somewhere representative of the slope you want to ride before you drop in to see if you can find these weaknesses. Know that just because you might not get a sensitive result, does not mean the problem is not reactive.

With a remote trigger, be aware that you could still trigger an avalanche nearby on slopes that are connected to avalanche terrain and areas where the avalanches can run out below, even if this terrain is less than 30 degrees. These have been reported over the last couple days.

Sensitivity The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut.
Distribution Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations.
Time of Day All day
Trend No change
Confidence Moderate

Wind Slab

Problem Type Wind Slab Icon
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Aspect/Elevation
Avalanche Size
Avalanche Size
Likelihood
Likelihood
A cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind drifted snow.

Watch out for build-ups or pillows of wind-deposited snow around ridges. Wind directions appear to be primarily from NNW , but cornices can be seen on most aspects with the recent winds and contouring around the peaks.

Look for cornices, blowing snow and snow that is rippled and crusty and expect that the other side of the ridge, you could find wind slabs. These should heal over the next several days, as the winds are decreasing and the snowpack will have time to adjust to the new load.

Even a small slab has been triggering the weaker layers buried lower in the snowpack, resulting in large to very avalanches. If you see build-ups or pillows of wind-deposited snow, choose small, safe test slopes for ski tests or use hand shear tests to see how reactive the snow is before dropping in off of the ridgelines.

Sensitivity The specific avalanche problem type is highly reactive to human rider triggers.
Distribution Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations.
Time of Day All day
Trend Improving
Confidence Moderate

Recent Avalanches and Snowpack

Natural avalanches continue to be seen throughout the valley, especially with the recent winds, these have happened near the ridgelines. People have reported widespread whumping, cracks, and collapse of the snowpack on all aspects and elevations as well as human triggered avalanches, especially remotely triggered. The recent natural avalanches seen were windslabs that then triggered persistent weak layers further down in the snowpack. This could possibly be the suncrust and surface facets that are now about 25cm-60cm down under the consolidated storm slab.

Collapsing, cracking, and whumphing occured while investigating low angle terrain near Kobi village around 1980m- 2050m Here is the snowpack profile from a pit we dug on 26.02.2025: https:snowpilot.org/node/73208 Results: ECTP13 @ 45cm 2030m. Surface hoar and facets seen in the layer that failed.

Recent avalanches: 2 size 1 avalanches on NE aspect around 2500m observed 27.02 on Miketi, 27.02: 2 avalanches observed near Lomisa. 1 avalanche NW of skin track size 3-4 fresh windslab triggered the persistent slab and gullies are filled with debris around 2300m NNW aspect. 2nd: Size 4 also fresh windslab triggered persistent slab, debris almost to river NW of Lomisa around 2300m NE aspect. 26.02 NE aspect at 2045m in Kobi Valley triggered windslab down to persistent weak layer from ridge. There is a video on the Facebook: Georgian Avalanche and Snow Conditions Page. 26.02 NNE aspect Lomisa to ground per reporter. Several new size 1-2 windslabs and persistent slabs seen on NE faces Lomisa to Miketi as well as size 2 SE on Sadzele W.

Over the past 3 days there have been moderate to strong winds from predominately NNW with blowing snow observed. There is significant amount of snow that was available to be transported into windslabs and triggered the deeper layers of the snowpack to fail.

Before the storm, surface hoar layers and weak, sugary layers around crusts and hard slabs were seen in the snowpack on various aspects and elevations. These layers caused easy failures in snow tests. Many areas also have a layer of sugary crystals at or near the ground. With the weight of the new snow, these layers are not to be trusted and need to be checked carefully.

Weather

Over the next several days: It is expected to stay cold with the sun coming out after today. Today minimal precipitation is expected. At 3000m winds predicted primarily from the NW.

Disclaimer

Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.