Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
A large amount of new snow that is still settling, wind at higher elevations in the last few days and persistent weak layers in the previous snowpack has caused dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Very large avalanches could occur if a small avalanche triggers the weaker layers buried in the snowpack.
Forecast issued at: 22 February 2025 08:30
Forecast valid until: 25 February 2025 08:30
Forecaster: SaRah Busse
> 2600m
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
2000m - 2600m
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
< 2000m
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
In the last 3 days there has been significant snowfall. It is starting to consoliate and stabilise, but with around 150cm of new snow at 2600m, storm slab could be present on all aspects and elevations. Watch out for steep unsupported slopes and rollovers, where these are most likely to be triggered. The weight of a slide from the storm slab could trigger weaker layers further down, increasing the size and consequences of the avalanche. Choose safe test slopes to see how reactive the storm slab is before committing. Look for shooting cracks and listen for whoomping and avoid these slopes.
Caution with losing skis and getting stuck in this deep powder as well. It can be dangerous just falling in the snowpack and energy draining trying to get out. There were several rescues in the resort of people that were unable to get themselves out.
The storm slab is expected to stabilise over the next several days, without expected new snow. You can know this is starting to stablise when your boot or ski sinks less in the snow.
Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
Time of Day | All day |
Trend | Improving |
Confidence | High |
Watch out for build-ups or pillows of wind-deposited snow around ridges caused by S, SW, and SE winds over the last few days. Look for cornices, blowing snow and snow that is rippled and crusty and expect that the other side of the ridge, you could find wind slabs. These could build over time with the snow available for transport. Even a small slab could also trigger the weaker layers buried lower in the snowpack. If you see build-ups or pillows of wind-deposited snow, choose small, safe test slopes for ski tests or use hand shear tests to see how reactive the snow is before dropping in off of the ridgelines.
Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
Time of Day | All day |
Trend | No change |
Confidence | Moderate |
In most places in the high alpine, and N 1/2 aspects in the alpine and sub-alpine zones, layers of weak snow can be found at the base and middle of the snowpack. Sudden collapses of these layers caused by a rider's weight could trigger large avalanches on slopes of more than 30 degrees. Dig somewhere representative of the slope you want to ride before you drop in to see if you can find these weaknesses.
With a remote trigger, be aware of slopes connected to avalanche terrain and areas where the avalanches can run out below, even if this terrain is less than 30 degrees.
Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
Time of Day | All day |
Trend | No change |
Confidence | Moderate |
Size 1 reported near Arakhveti Friday 22nd 1574m, NE aspect, remote trigger by a skier on persistent weak layer.
Observations have been limited by visibility over the past several days. No new avalanches seen on Bidara front side (NE face), Sadzele S faces or Kudebi SE, S or SW faces.
The area has received significant amounts of new snow with SW winds. Wind slabs are possible on W, NW, N, NE and E aspects at high elevations.
21cm new snow observed at 2800m on Friday p.m. About 150cm of new snow was recorded since the start of the storm on Monday, with the heaviest fall overnight Tuesday Feb 18th.
Before the storm, surface hoar layers and weak, sugary layers around crusts and hard slabs were seen in the snowpack on various aspects and elevations. These layers caused easy failures in snow tests. Many areas also have a layer of sugary crystals at or near the ground. With the weight of the new snow, these layers are not to be trusted and need to be checked carefully.
There is a lot of soft new surface snow around right now that could be moved by wind, or loosened by sun in steep rocky areas.
Minimal precipitation (around 5cm) and light winds are expected over the next 3 days. It is expected to be really cold.
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.