Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
20 - 40 cms of new snow fell on Wednesday and Thursday with winds from from the SE - E, then from NE on Saturday night. Windslabs have formed around ridges and roll-overs, so the entrances to slopes need to be checked carefully. Loose dry 'sluffs' remain an issue in steep areas. If triggered, even a small avalanche could also trigger deeper layers. Be careful with your speed, as the new snow hides many rocks!
Forecast issued at: 10 February 2025 08:30
Forecast valid until: 14 February 2025 08:30
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slab
In most places in the high alpine, and N 1/2 aspects in the alpine and sub-alpine zones, layers of weak snow can be found at the base and middle of the snowpack. Sudden collapses of these layers caused by a rider's weight could trigger large avalanches on slopes of more than 30 degrees. Dig somewhere representative of the slope you want to ride before you drop in to see if you can find these weaknesses.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Wind Slab
Watch out for build-ups or pillows of wind-deposited snow around ridges caused by SE, E and NE winds over the last few days. Even a small slab could also trigger the weaker layers buried lower in the snowpack.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Dry
On most aspects, loose new surface snow could form small avalanches in steep areas, easily triggered by riders. They can also be triggered by sun hitting steep rocky areas. Even a small loose slide could take you over rocks or trigger deeper layers.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | High |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Upper Kobi valley 8th February, 2 x size 2 windslabs observed, 3050 - 3250m, NE aspect - 1 natural, 1 human triggered. Multiple size 1 loose snow slides seen over the last few days, natural and human triggered, S, W and N aspects. A few of these stepped down to previous layers or ground.
Around 20 cm of new snow fell on February 5th and 6th, with up to 40cm accumulating in some areas due to S and E winds. A period of strong NE winds on the 8th moved a bit of this new snow. Before the snowfall the snowpack was thin in many places, with early-season snow forming a weak, sugary base layer on all aspects above about 2500m, and on shady aspects at lower elevations. Hard old wind deposited layers can be found in the mid-pack, with weak snow and surface hoar layers seen above and below them. This layer combination caused easy failures in test results in some locations, and would be more dangerous in places where the harder layer is thinner.
Weather
Mostly fine with some cloud for the next few days. Cold temperatures and light N winds. A change in this weather pattern is predicted to arrive on Friday.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.