Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
The new snow is unstable in some areas. There are also fragile layers under the recent snow which could create large avalanches. Warm temperatures and rain at low elevations bring the risk of wet snow avalanches in the sub-alipne zone. Avoid steep terrain for the next few days.
Forecast issued at: 18 March 2024 08:00
Forecast valid until: 20 March 2024 08:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slab
The recent new snow sits above a melt-freeze crust which might not be well bonded at lower elevations. There are also weak snow layers under this crust at higher elevations. Stay away from steep areas for a while.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak, sugary snow has been found in the upper and mid snowpack at higher elevations on various aspects. Whumphing has been observed in some places. Large slab avalanches could be triggered by the additional weight of new snow or by a smaller surface avalanche. These problems will be worse in the north of the region and areas where the snow is shallower.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Loose Wet
Wet snow and rain below 2000 m means small loose wet slides could occur naturally or triggered by riders in steep areas. Be very aware of terrain traps aound you.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Deteriorating |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
18 March - Natural cize 2 loose wet / storm slab SW aspect 3100 m near Sadzele. Multiple skier-triggered size 1 storm slabs, 2500 m NE, Lower Kobi valley.
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects (more commonly E, S and W), some up to size 2. These can release at any time - if you see cracks in the snow, do not stop under these areas!
Snowpack:
Up to 40 cm of new snow fell at high elevations on Saturday, with E winds at the start of the storm, and evidence that winds turned S during the storm. The new snow is sitting on a recent melt-freeze crust in many areas, even on N aspects, and below this is a combination of facet layers and crusts can be found - the top two facet layers are creating whumphing and very easy failures in testing. These weaknesses may be worse on shady aspects at high elevations and where the snow is shallow (less than about 1.5 m), but you should check the snow carefully before riding as these layers have potential to form quite big avalanches with light loads.
Weather
Light snow and low visibility forecast over the next 2 days. 20 cm or more could accumulate. Light SW winds, Freezing level 1950 - 2150 m.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.