Gudauri
Natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
A lowering freezing level will mean small loose snow slides are more likely be found in the sun at low elevations, and on some steep sunny slopes higher up.
Forecast issued at: 18 February 2024 23:00
Forecast valid until: 20 February 2024 23:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Below 2600m on sunny aspects, it might be possible for a single rider to start small loose snow avalanches. They will be easier to start from mid-morning to late afternoon, on steep areas and at lower elevations.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is reactive to human rider triggers. Easy to trigger with ski cut. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
Weak, facetted snow layers have been found around buried mid-pack crusts and in areas with shallow snow depth. The problem is worse in the north of the region where the snow is shallower. With recent warm temperatures these layers should have stabilised at lower elevations, but remain cautious on steep terrain.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Recent avalanche activity:
Several small (size 1) loose wet avalanches observed during the last few days' warm weather, S half, below 2900m.
Glide slabs continue to be active on multiple aspects (more commonly E, S and W) below about 2600m, some up to size 2.
Snowpack: Light rain at low elevations and about 15cm of new snow at higher elevations on Thursday and Friday, and warm temperatures have caused surface instabilites in the last few days. A lowering freezing level will confine the loose snow problem to steep sunny areas, especially in the sub-alpine zone, and cause a crust higher up as the moist snow re-freezes. Dry snow has been reported on N aspects at higher elevations. Crusts with weak snow layers around them are now less of a problem on lower elevation and sunny slopes. In northern areas (North of Kobi Valley), where the snowpack is thinner, weak snow might still be present. Watch out for, sugary (faceted) snow in areas where the snow is shallow. Warm temperatures have been gradually strengthening the snowpack, but the problem layers can't be forgotten yet. Check out recent snow profiles (or add your own!) at snowpilot.org
Weather
The last two days have been very warm with light winds and plenty of sun, although a cloud layer was hanging around lower down at times. Sunny periods, light snow showers and light and variable winds expected for the next 2 days, freezing level 1550m lowering to 500m Tuesday night.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.