Gudauri
Natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are likely. Small avalanches in many areas, or large avalanches in specific areas, or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
Windslabs are likely to remain reactive over the next 24 - 48 hours. Cool temperatures will slow the bonding of these slabs. Storm snow that was not wind-affected could also produce avalanches at lower elevations. Areas of shallow snow (<1 m) at high elevations in rocky areas and near ridgelines should be approached with caution.
Forecast issued at: 10 January 2024 22:00
Forecast valid until: 11 January 2024 22:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
3 Considerable
Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slab
Moderate to strong SW winds have formed wind slabs in alpine and high alpine areas on N and E aspects. These will be reactive tomorrow and could be up to 60 cm deep. Be very cautious on E aspects below ridges and roll-overs.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is highly reactive to human rider triggers. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Storm Slab
30cm of new snow and light winds make reactive areas of storm slab a possibility in the alpine zone where the snow was not wind affected, and down to about 1700m. Slides will be mostly small but in some areas where a firm, wind-scoured surface was present, larger slides might be possible.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Many locations. Evidence for instabilities is frequently found, in many locations. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Glide
Glide cracks and full-depth glide avalanches are common around this area, and this time of year they begin to be more of a problem. These avalanches can release randomly on all aspects, even at night, although rapid warming makes them more likely. This problem will continue for the rest of the season. Do not stop under steep areas if there are cracks above you. Remember that new snow or wind-drifting can disguise these cracks.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Persistent Slab
A weak layer above a melt-freeze crust has been found near the ski area. It likely needs a large trigger, such as a smaller avalanche, to set it off. Only found on an East aspect so far, but may also exist on South and West too in certain spots. Have a dig, and let us know your observations!
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | No change |
| Confidence | Moderate |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
Avalanche Activity: 10th january, size 1 skier triggered windslab, Kobi Valley, 2300m, E aspect, 20cm deep. 8th January - multiple new glide slabs up to size 2 seen around Gudauri backcountry, most aspects below 3000m. 7th January - large size 2 windslab debris seen in Milioni valley, 2400m, E, 35 degrees (probably happened on 5th).
Snowpack: 30-35cm of new snow fell on Jan 9th with light winds at lower levels but moderate to strong SW winds higher up. The previous snowpack seems mostly stable with no concerning failures in recent tests on N aspect 2100m and NE aspect 3000m. Faceted snow has been found in shallow rocky areas near ridges. A melt-freeze crust with facets above has been found on an E aspect at 2970m, Bidara. Wet snow at lower elevations will be re-freezing with falling temperatures, forming a melt-freeze crust.
Check recent profiles at snowpilot.org
Weather
Last two days: 30-35cm new snow yesterday with strong SW - W winds in the high alpine, lighter winds lower down, and mild temperatures gradually becoming cooler today. Forecast: Mostly sunny on Thursday morning but snow showers possible in the afternoon. Light NW to SW winds. Freezing level 700m rising to 1000m midday then falling to 150m at night.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.