Gudauri
Natural avalanches are unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are possible. Small avalanches in specific areas, or large avalanches in isolated areas.
Windslab avalanches are still possible in the next few days but becoming harder to trigger. Small loose wet slides are possible. Watch for glide slabs and cracks on various aspects below 2600m. Please note that we currently have limited observations, and there is some uncertainty around some parts of this forecast.
Forecast issued at: 30 December 2023 19:00
Forecast valid until: 2 January 2024 19:00
Forecaster: Manu Greer
High Alpine
> 2600m
2 Moderate
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Alpine
2000m - 2600m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Sub Alpine
< 2000m
1 Low
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slab
Strong West winds on Dec 28th created areas of windslab that could still be triggered by a heavy load, especially in sheltered areas such as below rock outcrops or in steep gullies. Areas that look fat or sound hollow should be treated with caution. Slabs could be up to 100cm thick. Convex rollovers should be treated with extra caution.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | A few, isolated locations; evidence for instabilities is rare and hard to find. |
| Time of Day | All day |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | High |
Loose Wet
Sun and warmer temperatures over the next few days makes small loose wet avalanches possible, especially in steep rocky areas and lower elevations, mostly from mid-morning to mid-afternoon.
| Sensitivity | The specific avalanche problem type is difficult to trigger with a human rider. |
| Distribution | Specific areas, with common characteristics. Evidence for instabilities exists, but it is not obvious and finding it requires careful observations. |
| Trend | Improving |
| Confidence | High |
Recent Avalanches and Snowpack
29th December - size 2.5 wind slab triggered by snow mobile Bidara lower peak, SW, 2950m. 1m deep, 80m wide, ran about 450m. Older Size 2.5 windslab seen 30 December on Kobi valley proper headwall, NW, 3000m. Size 1 and 2 natural and ski-patrol-triggered windslabs evident which would have happened in the last 48 hours, mostly E and NE aspects, 3000m and above. Many glideslabs seen on various aspects mostly below 2600m. Small size 1 loose wet activity seen today on steep rocky areas.
Over the past week west winds moved a lot of snow, leaving some scoured areas with new wind slabs in a few sheltered places. The underlying snowpack seems stable and consistent, with few weaknesses seen so far. Some facets were found close to the ground on N aspects. A very thin layer of facets was found overlying a crust which is now about 1.5m below the surface. Observations are still limited and sparse.
Weather
Fine with light winds the next couple of days, cloudy areas on Tuesday, light winds. Low -8, high -2 next 3 days.
Disclaimer
Our avalanche forecasters are internationally qualified and experienced professionals, and data is provided by skilled observers. We encourage you to make your own observations and decisions, without relying solely on our forecast, since any forecast is a generalised 'best guess', and in certain cases it might be inaccurate. We can not be held liable for any actions you take in the backcountry that may result in injury, loss or death.